Friday, July 29, 2005

Informed Comment - On How US Troops Aren't Coming Home Any Time Soon "Mind you, I'm all for withdrawing US troops from Iraq as soon as humanly possible. I think they have the wrong rules of engagement and the wrong tactics for waging counter-insurgency in a clannish society like Iraq, and it is a toss-up whether they are keeping some peace or making things worse. (Fallujah last November demonstrably made things much worse). But I think you need some sort of realistic bridge from that withdrawal to the time when the new Iraqi army can stand on its own. I don't know where you get that bridge, but nature abhors a vacuum. If the US is gone and the Shiite Iraqis are under siege from Sunni guerrillas, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards will certainly come in to help the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq and the Dawa Party. Even a covert Iranian military presence in Iraq would provoke even more Sunni jihadis to go fight there. A regional war could easily break out, with dire consequences for us all."

I think the dire consequences have already occurred. Furthermore, it seems apparent that Iraqi civil war is inevitable, just like Yugoslavian civil war was inevitable when Tito was toppled. I know it will look bad if we pull out now, but I don't see how it will EVER look good for us no matter what we do. Given those parameters I think the best course of action now is to pull out as soon as the Iraqi government tells us to. I know we want some permanent bases there but those plans have GOT to be scrapped. There are ways of getting what you want OTHER than violence. It is time we admit our mistake, offer to help, but get out of the way and stop making war.

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